We concluded another regional call with the Virginia
Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) and the National Weather Service
(NWS) based on the National Hurricane Center’s 11am forecast.
As Isaias approaches, there is higher confidence in the
inland track being forecasted. Please
note an inland track should serve to limit further strengthening of the
system. Nonetheless, our community is
positioned on the right-side which means higher winds. According to the Maximum
Wind Gusts graphic, we can see gusts around 65mph which can result in
downed trees / limbs and ultimately power outages. Additionally, there is also the threat of
Fortunately, most of the rainfall is to occur on the left-side
of the storm as shown in the 72-Hour
Precipitation Forecast graphic. Most
of the rainfall impacts are expected in the Central Virginia region while we
can see upward of a couple of inches; however, this could be heavy at times
with the storm’s rain bands resulting in flash-flooding.
At this time there is no serious threat from storm surge;
most of the anticipated tidal flooding will occur further into the Bay.
The timing for Isaiah’s visit is expected to be pre-dawn on
Tuesday and through the afternoon hours which is displayed in the latest Hourly
Bottom line, while we may not be inundated with rain and
tidal flooding, we will see some significant and impactful winds and in
increased threat of tornados. Given that
we “run from the water and hide from the wind”, the likelihood of opening
shelters is diminishing though we are still planning for that possibility. Additionally, particularly should we
experience any tornados, we have forestry crews and damage assessment teams on
stand-by for when the storm leaves the area in the late afternoon timeframe.
More to come.
Jim Redick, Director
Norfolk Emergency Preparedness & Response